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The first is what I would call "Walrasian Dynamics," which treats the economy as a complex dynamic nonlinear system, and uses techniques from complexity theory, especially agent-based modeling and analytical models with "fat tail" error distributions. For the interested reader, my paper "The Dynamics of General Equilibrium" Economic Journal, lies in this area and is the first to demonstrate both the quasi-stability and excessivel volatility of a dynamic version of Walrasian general equilibrium.
The second is vector autoregression techniques that attempt to do without a specific "representative agent" model of the macro economy. I have no faith in the possibilities of such models, but the reader can judge for himself.
This book does not deliever the goods, but it is inspirational for those who are hardy enough to attempt to forge an alternative to the ghastly macro models that monopolize the field these days. This book is a collection of essays that deals with Keynes,uncertainty, " modern " macroeconomic modeling and the DSGE model. This model is criticized. However,the criticism is not decisive because the majority of essay authors still want to work within the confines of mathematical probability theory which requires additivity and linearity.
My review will concentrate on the introduction and essays written by Leijonhufvud and Colander. The DSGE model is simply a version of the rational expectations approach based on a reinterpretation of Khinchin's physics gas -particle model that leads to the conclusion that the economy can be correctly modeled as following a Weiner process over time,i.
Heating up economic expansion the gas particles increases the interactions while cooling the particles down decreases economic contraction the interactions. The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem allow one to calculate the mean and standard deviations,which measure the 'uncertainties' risk of this process over time.
The only problem is that there is not a shred of empirical,historical or statistical evidence to support this Ptolomaic type artificially constructed model. Benoit Mandelbrot ,as well as the thousand of researchers outside the economics profession who have duplicated and replicated his work, has established over the last 50 years that the distributions are Cauchy. An examination of the data totally and completely refutes the DSGE. The second problem with the essays of Leijonhufvud and Colander is that the authors are ignorant of the basic model Keynes used in the GT in chapters 20 and This model is an economic version of Keynes's conventional coefficient of risk and weight ,c,model which introduced non linearity and non additivity into the decision making calculus.
Keynes integrates the decisive difference between the very special case of a linear and additive risk concept used by the DSGE model through the specification of his e and ed subscripts see pp. It can be found in sections of chapter The technical details can be found on p.
Keynes presented a very precise analysis demonstrating that an analysis of uncertainty introduced non additivity and non linearity into the formal representation of decision making. The subjectivist, Bayesian approach regards probability as another name for the purely mathematical laws of the probability calculus that requires additivity and linearity. The Subjectivist approach makes the crucial error of conflating probability theory with decision theory.
Keynes realized that ,due to the impact of the weight of the evidence confidence on decision makers ,as well as the optimism-pessimism of the decision maker,decision theory would have to be able to take into account the importance of non linearity and non additivity.
The concept of expected value or utility is crucial to the Ramsey-De Finetti approach. Keynes demonstrated that expected value or expected utility can ,at best,be a special case only of a much more general theory. Bentham's approach was that the whole can not be anything more than the sum of the individual ,atomic parts. However, this requires the assumptions of additivity and linearity.
Bentham assumed also that all decision makers can calculate the odds. Keynes showed that this was not the case. Bentham claimed that all individuals have the capability to calculate the odds and outcomes and act on the expected utility the probability times the utility of the outcome in a rational way. This can be expressed by the following ,where p is the probability of success,q is the probability of failure, and A is the outcome: The modern version of this is to Maximize pU A ,where p is a subjective probability that is additive,linear,precise,and exact and U A is a Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility function.
The goal is to Maximize pU A. Therefore,a microeconomic foundation based on Utility Maximization is just Benthamite Utilitarianism updated with modern mathematical probability techniques. Modern macroeconomics is all disguised SEU theory. Keynes rejected Benthamite Utilitarianism as a very special case that would only hold under the special assumptions of the subjectivist, Bayesian model-that all probabilities were additive,linear,precise,single number answers that obeyed the purely mathematical laws of the probability calculus.
Keynes specifies his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c, model in chapter 26 of the TP on p. Benthamite Utilitarians always assume that the value of w is always 1.
Now multiply the above by A or U A. The goal is to maximuze cA or cU A. It is now straightforward to see that the neoclassical microfoundations of macroeconomics assumes that all probabilities are additive and linear. Economists today have only a very vague,hazy,cloudy understanding of Keynes 's distinction between risk and uncertainty.
It is this distinction that has to be grasped first before any economist can have any hope of understanding what Keynes meant in the GT. The conclusion is very straightforward.
Keynes used the rule to maximize cU A. Keynes's rule is of the same kind or type of rule used by the overwhelmingly ambiguity averse decision makers that populated the real world in the past as well as in the present. Keynes's analysis of uncertainty is clearly related to non additivity and non linearity. It is only an anomaly in a neoclassical world of linearity and additivity that exists for Benthamite Utilitarian and for the DSGE model.
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@laughlovelogan oh. na dann fuhlst du den selben schmerz wie wir.:/ ich muss sogar in den "ferien" ein essay schreiben und 2 bucher lesen.. Fallstudie beispiel essay. Post Walrasian Macroeconomics: Beyond the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model [David Colander] on directlenders.ml *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical.